Per-capita two-wheeler ownership crossed the saturation curve. Future growth is replacement, not new buyers.

Indian two-wheeler sales flattened around 18-19 million units annually for the past 3 years. The reason is structural: per-capita two-wheeler ownership in urban India crossed the saturation curve. Future growth is replacement demand and rural expansion, not net new buyers in cities. The big shift is electric. By 2027, electric two-wheelers will represent 25-30% of new sales (vs 6% today). Hero, TVS, and Bajaj are pivoting hard. The companies that'll lose are the ICE-only pure-plays. The companies that'll win are the ones with credible EV products at the ₹1-1.5L price point — Ola, Bajaj Chetak, TVS iQube currently leading.